Colombia will learn on Tuesday, August 18, how its economy performed in the second quarter of 2026. According to Corficolombiana, market consensus points to growth near 2.2%, although several analysts have raised their estimates, anticipating higher figures.
Bancolombia projects 3.1% annual real growth, consistent with an economy that maintains resilience in demand but faces significant challenges in investment. The entity estimates that private consumption would have expanded 3.1% annually, while public spending would have expanded 9.6% annually, well above its historical average of 4.6%.
Corficolombiana estimates even higher growth of 3.3% annually, accelerating from the 1.9% observed a year earlier and the 2.2% of the first quarter. This figure, according to the entity, reflects mainly the impulse from household consumption, which would have grown 2.9% annually, and public spending. However, it warns that growth would have been limited by primary sectors that contracted 0.9%, while industry and construction advanced only 0.2%.
Both institutions identify investment as a cause for concern. Bancolombia projects a moderate advance of 1.8% annually, pointing to persistent weaknesses in mining, construction and industry. Corficolombiana reports a "very limited expansion" of 0.6% annually, decelerating from the 3.5% a year earlier, in an environment of lower business confidence linked to electoral uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions.
Corficolombiana highlights that entertainment would have grown 8.1% in the quarter, favoured by higher spending associated with the World Cup, while public administration would have grown 7.2%, driven by a real increase of 19.8% annually in government personnel spending by the Central National Government. Both entities warn that these impulses, particularly the accelerated public spending towards the end of the administration, are likely to be temporary.
