With 43 days until Brazil's presidential election on 4 October, the Datafolha Institute published a survey showing Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in both electoral scenarios. In the first round, Lula obtains 39% support compared to 33% for Bolsonaro, according to the study released by the newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo.
In a potential runoff, Lula would win with 47% against 43% for Bolsonaro, according to the Datafolha survey. The institute noted that although Lula's support advantage has narrowed since June, the Brazilian president has remained ahead as the favourite to achieve his re-election.
In the first round, Ronaldo Caiado, former governor of Minas Gerais, ranks third with 5% voter intention, followed by Renan Santos with 4% and the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, with 3%. 6% said they would vote blank and another 4% said they did not know who they would vote for in October.
The survey was conducted in person with 2,058 people aged 16 or older between 18 and 19 August 2026 in 128 Brazilian municipalities. The estimated margin of error is plus or minus 2% and the study was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-04496/2026.
